A recent Senate election preference survey by Arkipelago Analytics reveals a highly competitive race, with Baste Duterte, Leni Robredo, and Robin Padilla sharing the lead at 48 percent each, resulting in a three-way tie for first to third place.
Top Contenders and Close Ranks
Following closely are Vico Sotto and Loren Legarda, both at 45 percent, ranking fourth and fifth. Raffy Tulfo and Alan Peter Cayetano are tied at 42 percent for sixth and seventh. The top ten is rounded out by Pulong Duterte, Francis Escudero, and Mark Villar, each with 39 percent. Completing the current Magic 12 are Jose Sixto Gonzales III “Dingdong” Dantes and Grace Poe, both at 35 percent.
Candidates Within Striking Distance
Several candidates are within reach of the winning circle. Jinggoy Estrada, Ben Bitag Tulfo, Nancy Binay, Joy Belmonte, and Jose Marie Borja Viceral (Vice Ganda) are tied at 33 percent for 13th to 17th place. Jimmy Bondoc, Juan Edgardo “Sonny” Angara, and Manny Pacquiao follow at 30 percent for 18th to 20th.
Other candidates with measurable support include Rex Gatchalian and JV Ejercito at 28 percent; Rowena Guanzon, Mike Defensor, and Bong Revilla at 27 percent; Vince Dizon and Ralph Recto at 24 percent; and Benhur Abalos, Franklin Drilon, and Mar Roxas at 21 percent. Gringo Honasan, Francis Tolentino, and Heidi Mendoza each have 19 percent; Philip Salvador, Willie Revillame, and Bonifacio Bosita at 14 percent; Chel Diokno and Doc Marites Mata at 8 percent; Vic Rodriguez and Antonio Trillanes at 7 percent; Teddy Casiño and Ka Leody de Guzman at 5 percent; and Apollo Quiboloy, Teacher France Castro, and Martin Romualdez at 4 percent.
Survey Methodology
The survey was conducted from May 26 to June 2, 2026, via face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,637 adults aged 18 and above. Regional stratification covered all 18 regions, with urban and rural clustering. National estimates have a ±2 percent margin of error at a 96 percent confidence level; subnational estimates have a ±5 percent margin of error at a 95 percent confidence level.
Weighting adjusted regional distribution to match COMELEC’s voter registration data (68,618,667 registered voters). Final weighted regional proportions: 11 percent NCR, 45 percent Luzon (excluding NCR), 20 percent Visayas, and 24 percent Mindanao. Gender distribution: 51 percent female, 49 percent male. Socioeconomic classification: 7 percent Class ABC, 75 percent Class D, 18 percent Class E.
