Fuel Costs Set to Climb for Filipino Motorists
Filipino consumers should prepare for another round of oil price increases next week, with projections pointing to a rise of as much as PHP1.50 per liter. This anticipated hike, forecasted by industry experts, is driven by persistent tightness in global supply chains, partly exacerbated by international sanctions.
Projected Price Adjustments for Diesel and Gasoline
According to Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas, based on price movements in the Asian benchmark Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) and foreign exchange rates as of Thursday, November 13, 2025, specific adjustments are expected. He forecasted that diesel prices may increase by PHP1 to PHP1.20 per liter, while gasoline prices could see a larger jump of PHP1.30 to PHP1.50 per liter.
Bellas explained that diesel and middle distillate prices are being supported by tighter fundamentals. "Supply remains capped due to refinery turnarounds," he said, adding that growing concerns over Western sanctions on Russian oil could further disrupt trade flows and tighten the market.
Underlying Causes and Future Outlook
The situation for gasoline is similar, with firm regional demand continuing to draw down inventories. Exports from major producers have also been declining due to refinery outages and planned maintenance turnarounds.
However, there is a silver lining. Bellas noted that the further upside to prices is expected to be limited. The current supply tightness is projected to gradually ease as refineries complete their seasonal turnaround and return to full operation.
If the increase pushes through, it will mark the seventh consecutive week of hikes for gasoline and the fourth for diesel. This follows a recent adjustment where gasoline increased by PHP0.50 per liter and diesel by PHP1 per liter.
It is important to note that last week's oil price hikes were not implemented in select areas severely damaged by recent typhoons. Furthermore, the prices of kerosene and other basic necessities have been frozen since November 7, following Malacañang's declaration of a state of national calamity.
