In a significant policy shift, Philippine trade authorities have officially lowered the country's merchandise export targets for the years 2025 through 2028. The decision, driven by a confluence of global challenges, aims to set more achievable goals in the face of mounting international trade pressures.
Revised Targets: A New Realism in Global Trade
The stark revision was presented by Export Marketing Bureau (EMB) Director and Export Development Council (EDC) Executive Director Bianca Pearl Sykimte during the Exporters' Week event in Mandaluyong City on Thursday, December 4, 2025. The newly approved ranges under the Philippine Export Development Plan (PEDP) are substantially lower than previous ambitions.
The updated targets are as follows:
- 2025: Between US$110.8 billion and $113.4 billion.
- 2026: From $116.1 billion to $120.2 billion.
- 2027: From $123.3 billion to $127.4 billion.
- 2028: From $132.8 billion to $135.1 billion.
This marks a dramatic reduction from the earlier, more optimistic goals which were set at $163.6 billion for 2025, $186.7 billion for 2026, $212.1 billion for 2027, and $240.5 billion for 2028.
Navigating a Perfect Storm of Global Disruptions
In an interview, Director Sykimte explained that the recalibration is a pragmatic response to severe external headwinds buffeting global commerce. She cited a 'perfect storm' of factors necessitating the adjustment.
The key challenges identified include:
- The impact of heightened US tariff policies.
- Geopolitical tensions affecting trade routes.
- Operational constraints due to drought in the Panama Canal.
- Attacks by Houthi rebels on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, disrupting a critical global shipping artery.
"The latest figures are more realistic given the impact on global trade," Sykimte stated, emphasizing the need for targets that reflect the current volatile environment.
Strong Current Performance Offers a Silver Lining
Despite the downward revision in future targets, recent export data provides a strong counter-narrative of resilience. Preliminary figures from the Philippine Statistics Authority show robust growth.
Exports in October 2025 surged by 19.4% year-on-year, reaching $7.39 billion, up from $6.19 billion in October 2024. For the first ten months of 2025, total exports hit $70.43 billion, representing a 13.8% increase over the $61.9 billion recorded in the same period last year.
This growth builds on a solid 2024 foundation, where full-year exports, based on Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas data processed by the DTI-EDC, reached $106.6 billion.
When asked for a full-year 2025 outlook, Sykimte expressed optimism, pointing to sustained monthly improvements. She highlighted that while electronics and semiconductors are poised to be key growth drivers in the remaining months, the expansion is broadly based. "Growth is spread across many sectors," she noted.
The revised PEDP underscores a strategic balancing act: acknowledging harsh global realities while capitalizing on the proven strength of flagship industries to navigate uncertain waters.
