The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) clarified that Cebu and the rest of Central Visayas are experiencing a dry spell, not a drought, as some local officials had previously described. Weather specialist Mark Gales of Pagasa Visayas stated during an online press conference that the region has recorded three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, meeting the criteria for a dry spell.
Definition of Dry Spell vs. Drought
According to Pagasa, a dry spell is declared after three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or after two consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, where rainfall is more than 60 percent below average. In contrast, a drought is only declared when way-below-normal rainfall persists for three consecutive months or when below-normal rainfall continues for five consecutive months. A dry condition, the mildest category, occurs after two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, with levels 21 to 60 percent below average.
Gales emphasized that the current situation in Central Visayas, including Cebu and Bohol, does not meet the stricter drought threshold. “For the past three months, most localities in Central Visayas experienced below-normal rainfall,” he said, clarifying the official classification.
Improvement Expected in July
Gales noted that rainfall conditions are forecast to improve in July, with near-normal rainfall expected across the region. “We are expecting near-normal rainfall for the month of July,” he said, offering relief after the prolonged dry conditions. However, he warned that dry conditions or dry spells could return toward the end of the year, with potential dry spell conditions projected from December 2026 through the first quarter of 2027.
Impact and Context
The clarification came after several local officials had described the weather pattern as a drought, prompting Pagasa to correct the terminology. The dry spell has affected agriculture and water supplies in parts of Cebu and neighboring provinces, but the expected July rainfall may alleviate some of the immediate stress on resources.
