Filipino motorists should brace for another round of significant fuel price increases next week, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in key oil-producing regions overseas. This marks a continuing trend of rising costs at the pump.
Projected Price Adjustments for Next Week
In a forecast issued on Friday, January 16, 2026, Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas warned of substantial hikes. Based on the Asian fuel price benchmark and foreign exchange movements as of Thursday, Bellas projected that diesel prices may increase by PHP1.80 to PHP2.00 per liter. Meanwhile, gasoline prices are expected to rise by PHP1.00 to PHP1.20 per liter.
If these projections hold, it will represent the fourth consecutive week of increases for diesel and the second straight hike for gasoline. Kerosene prices are also on track for a third weekly increase, further squeezing household budgets.
Geopolitical Turmoil Driving Global Oil Prices Up
Bellas explained that the primary driver is a volatile global environment. "Prices of crude oil and refined fuel products have increased significantly this week due to the volatile and unpredictable environment arising from the simultaneous geopolitical tensions in Venezuela, Iran, and the Black Sea," he stated.
He highlighted specific flashpoints causing market anxiety:
- Iran & The Strait of Hormuz: Protests in Iran and the potential for US intervention have raised fears that conflict could spread and threaten the critical flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a major global chokepoint.
- Black Sea Attacks: Recent drone attacks on two Western-operated oil tankers in the Black Sea have compounded tensions, fueling worries about broader supply disruptions.
Factors Moderating the Price Surge
Despite the upward pressure, Bellas noted some countervailing factors that have recently tempered prices. Comments from US leadership suggesting a de-escalation in Iran have eased some fears. Additionally, expectations of more stable supply from Venezuela and a larger-than-anticipated build in US crude and gasoline inventories have provided some balance to the market.
However, the net effect of these competing forces points clearly toward higher costs for consumers in the Philippines. The local fuel price hike is a direct consequence of these international pressures, reminding the public of the country's vulnerability to global energy market shocks.
