Filipino consumers could welcome a slight relief at the pump next week, as industry projections point to a possible rollback in fuel prices. The anticipated decrease is based on recent trends in the international oil market and foreign exchange movements.
Projected Price Adjustments for Diesel and Gasoline
In a report issued on Friday, Jetti Energy President Leo Bellas provided specific estimates for the potential price movement. He indicated that diesel prices may see a reduction ranging from PHP0.10 to PHP0.30 per liter. Meanwhile, gasoline prices could either remain stable or decrease by up to PHP0.20 per liter.
These forecasts are based on the weekly monitoring of the Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS), the Asian benchmark for fuel products. Bellas noted that prices under this benchmark have declined in the past week.
Global Factors Behind the Potential Rollback
The executive explained that the downward pressure on prices stems primarily from increasing availability of refined products and concerns over a crude oil oversupply. This bearish sentiment in the market is occurring despite several ongoing geopolitical tensions that typically push costs higher.
Bellas specifically mentioned risks from recent events in Venezuela, escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and heightened worries of a military escalation involving the US, Israel, and Iran. However, the current supply dynamics are outweighing these concerns for now.
A Word of Caution on the Forecast
Bellas added a significant caveat to the optimistic projection. He warned that any further worsening of geopolitical conflicts or major policy developments could swiftly reverse the current market sentiment. Such an event could push international prices upward, potentially reducing or even completely wiping out the expected rollback for the Philippine market next week.
For context, the oil companies implemented a mixed adjustment this current week. Gasoline prices decreased by PHP0.10 per liter, while diesel and kerosene prices increased by PHP0.20 and PHP0.10 per liter, respectively.
Looking at the broader quarter, analysts project that oil prices may ease in the first quarter of 2026 due to the oversupply forecast. However, they consistently note that the numerous geopolitical developments around the world remain a substantial risk that could disrupt this trend at any moment.
