The recent Yellow Alert declaration in the Mindanao grid should serve as a wake-up call for the national government, particularly the Department of Energy (DOE) and the Mindanao Development Authority (MinDA), to reassess the region’s long-term power supply situation and begin laying the groundwork for new energy investments.
After enjoying a surplus of power supply for several years, the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) placed the Mindanao grid under Yellow Alert status on June 10, 2026 after the region’s operating margin fell to only 120MW. While Mindanao still had sufficient supply to meet demand, the remaining operating margin was insufficient to satisfy the contingency reserve required under grid operating standards.
Data from NGCP showed that Mindanao had an available capacity of 2,731MW against a peak demand of 2,611MW. A Yellow Alert is issued when the operating margin is insufficient to meet the transmission grid’s contingency requirement, which is equivalent to the capacity of the largest generating unit connected to the grid.
According to NGCP, a total of 1,259.9MW was unavailable to the grid, of which 783MW came from baseload power plants. The grid operator reported that 12 power plants have been on forced outage since June 2026, three power plants since May 2026, one power plant since September 2025, and two power plants since 2024. In addition, 33 power plants are operating at derated capacities.
Despite the Yellow Alert declaration, NGCP did not implement manual load dropping in Mindanao. This means that distribution utilities were not required to carry out rotational power interruptions. However, the recent Yellow Alert highlights the growing vulnerability of the Mindanao grid and its diminishing reserve capacity. While Mindanao remains far from experiencing conditions similar to the power shortages of the mid-2010s, the latest alert demonstrates how quickly the region’s reserves can tighten when multiple power plants become unavailable.
What consumers should take note of is that if another major generating unit unexpectedly trips or a significant transmission disturbance occurs while reserves remain thin, different parts of Mindanao could experience prolonged rotational brownouts. This risk becomes even more significant when considering that Mindanao cannot simply rely on imports from the Visayas through the interconnection facilities in the north, especially as the Visayas grid itself has been experiencing tighter supply conditions and repeated yellow and red alerts.
For this reason, the Davao Consumer Movement is calling on the national government to begin taking concrete steps toward attracting new investments in power generation and other energy infrastructure that will strengthen Mindanao’s reserve margins and support its growing electricity requirements. More than a decade ago, MinDA and the DOE successfully helped create an environment that encouraged substantial investments in Mindanao’s power sector, contributing to the resolution of the region’s power shortages. We believe that the same commitment and coordination can once again help secure the region’s long-term energy future.
Given the lengthy permitting, approval, and construction timelines required for power projects, now is the appropriate time to begin engaging prospective investors and power generation companies. Building adequate reserves cannot be accomplished overnight. It requires planning and action years before additional capacity becomes necessary. Every year that new generation projects are delayed increases the risk of tighter reserves and future service disruptions. Mindanao has benefited from years of reliable electricity supply, but preserving that reliability requires action before shortages occur—not after consumers begin experiencing prolonged brownouts.
