New research from Ateneo de Manila University exposes a growing rice crisis in the Philippines, with domestic production failing to keep pace with national consumption demands. The study reveals that as of 2022, Filipinos consumed 2.3 million metric tons more rice than the country produced, creating an 18 percent shortfall that deepens the nation's dependence on imported rice.
Stagnant Production Amid Growing Demand
According to data from the Philippine Statistics Authority analyzed by researchers, national rice output has remained largely stagnant since 2017. Over the ten-year period leading up to 2023, total production of palay (unmilled rice) grew by only 9 percent, from 18.4 to 20.1 million metric tons.
This minimal growth occurred despite increasing rice consumption and population expansion. The research team from Ateneo's John Gokongwei School of Management and Department of Environmental Science found that rice farmland barely expanded during this period, increasing by just 1 percent from 4.7 to 4.8 million hectares.
Average yield improvements were also modest, rising only 7 percent from 3.9 to 4.2 metric tons per hectare. These sluggish growth rates have persisted despite years of government programs designed to boost local harvests.
Regional Disparities Tell Different Stories
The research uncovered sharp regional contrasts that highlight both the challenges and potential solutions for Philippine rice production. Some regions experienced significant declines, while others posted impressive gains through targeted interventions.
From 2018 to 2023, the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) and Eastern Visayas (Region VIII) saw rice production decline by 15 percent and 11 percent respectively. These losses were attributed to multiple factors including rice farmland loss, stagnant yields, repeated typhoons and droughts, and farmers shifting to more profitable crops.
In stark contrast, the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (Barmm) increased its rice output by an impressive 40 percent during the same period. Cagayan Valley (Region II) and Ilocos (Region I) also showed strong performance with gains of 27 percent and 16 percent respectively.
Beyond the Urbanization Myth
Contrary to popular belief, the researchers found that urbanization alone does not explain the farmland stagnation. Instead, they identified a combination of factors including limited farmland expansion, slow yield growth, climate shocks, and uneven public investment in rice areas as the main constraints on domestic production.
The success stories from high-performing regions provide valuable insights. In Barmm, increased rice yields are linked to dedicated investments in rice infrastructure combined with peace dividends following improved political stability. Other successful regions benefited from expanding irrigated areas, better yields, and support programs featuring improved seed varieties and farm mechanization.
Despite the establishment and extension until 2031 of the Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund (RCEF) under the Rice Tariffication Law (RA 11203), the authors note that national programs alone have not been sufficient to lift productivity in lagging regions.
Path Forward for Philippine Rice Security
The researchers express optimism that with the right policies and investments, local rice production can still grow and help reduce the country's dependence on imported grain. They emphasize that closing the growing rice deficit will require regionally tailored, climate-resilient strategies.
Key recommendations include developing stronger irrigation systems, implementing better-targeted support services, and creating financial measures that lower farmers' production costs. The contrasting experiences of different regions provide both positive models to emulate and cautionary tales to avoid.
The research paper, Understanding rice production stagnation in the Philippines: Regional evidence and development implications, was published in the open-access journal PLOS One by researchers Henry A. Bartelet, Alenn Jhulia D. Prodigalidad, Janelle S. Dy, and Jan Gabriel N. Manzano.
