The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, which began on November 14, 2025, is showing clear signs of falling apart. The historic Paris Agreement of 2015, once a beacon of global cooperation, is now effectively being abandoned as most of the 198 member states are no longer meeting their commitments.
A Celebration Without Leaders
Marking three decades of climate negotiations, the summit was expected to be a major event with around 50,000 participants. However, the atmosphere is far from celebratory. The most significant development is the notable absence of the world's most powerful leaders. The heads of state from the United States, China, India, and Russia—the four largest emitters of CO2—have chosen to stay away.
This lack of high-level engagement has cast a pall over the proceedings. With only 53 national leaders in attendance, the conference has failed to generate the political momentum necessary for meaningful progress. The 2020s, which activists and politicians had labeled the "decisive decade" for climate action, are now halfway through, and the outcome is clear: disillusionment has set in.
The Inevitable Failure of Key Targets
The conference received devastating news even before it began. The United Nations officially announced that the critical goal of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius will "inevitably be exceeded" in the early 2030s. This admission has transformed climate protection from a global priority into what is now widely seen as a political loser issue.
The geopolitical landscape has become a major obstacle. Instead of the cooperative multilateralism essential for tackling a global problem, the world is now defined by systemic competition between democracies and autocracies. This has fueled nationalism and protectionism, with the new buzzword being "resilience"—a concept favoring national self-sufficiency over the free trade that once defined globalization. In this tense environment, climate action has become the first casualty.
Unrealistic Demands and a Growing Divide
Amidst the disintegration, one of the most contentious topics in Belém is climate finance. There are serious negotiations on the table to provide developing nations with US$1.3 trillion in climate aid per year by 2035. This figure represents a massive increase from the previous target of US$300 billion set by the UNFCCC.
Critics argue this demonstrates a profound disconnect from reality. The United States, a major potential donor, is not participating in these commitments. Meanwhile, industrialized nations in Europe are grappling with their own domestic crises, including high budget deficits, crumbling infrastructure, and rising defense costs.
The burden of this proposed financial redistribution appears to fall solely on Western nations, while the world's current largest emitters, namely China and India, continue to build new coal-fired power plants. Ironically, these countries are using this cheap, coal-based energy to manufacture solar panels for export to Europe. This situation highlights what some observers call a "moral self-deception" within the climate movement, where the lines between perpetrator and victim become blurred. China, now the world's largest CO2 emitter, is often framed as a victim of historical Western emissions.
When accountability is missing from the equation, what remains is not an effective climate policy but a form of moral theater. The grand ambitions of saving the planet have burst at COP30, leaving behind a farce that would be laughable if the consequences for the planet were not so profoundly sad.
