The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) reported on Sunday, November 16, 2025, that three distinct weather systems are currently influencing the country's climate conditions. These are the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the shear line, and the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan.
In a positive development for disaster preparedness, the state weather bureau confirmed that no tropical cyclone is present inside or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Furthermore, the likelihood of a cyclone forming within the next three to five days remains low.
Rains Expected in Mindanao and Visayas
The ITCZ, which is the convergence of air masses from the northern and southern hemispheres, is the primary weather system affecting the central and southern parts of the archipelago. This system is triggering widespread rain across Mindanao and the Visayas.
Specific regions, including Caraga, Soccsksargen, parts of the Zamboanga Peninsula, and Northern Mindanao, are experiencing moderate to occasionally strong rains. Residents in these areas, particularly those in locations that have seen persistent rainfall, have been advised to remain vigilant against potential flash floods or landslides.
The Palawan area and the Visayas may also encounter cloudiness and precipitation due to the ITCZ's influence. While the ITCZ is forecast to stay active in the coming days, its intensity could diminish later in the week.
Northern Luzon Feels Amihan and Shear Line
Over in Luzon, two other weather systems are in play. The shear line—the boundary separating the cool air from the amihan and warm air from the Pacific—is bringing rains to Aurora province.
Meanwhile, the amihan or northeast monsoon is prevailing over Northern Luzon. It is causing weak to sometimes moderate or heavy rains in the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley regions. The Ilocos Region might experience isolated light rains.
Pagasa has indicated that the amihan may strengthen from Tuesday through Thursday. This intensification could result in stronger winds and the potential issuance of gale warnings for Northern Luzon.
For Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon, generally warm weather is expected during the daytime. However, localized thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon or evening. The forecast temperature range for the capital is between 24 and 31 degrees Celsius.
Sea Conditions and Public Advisory
As of the latest forecast, no gale warning is in effect. Nonetheless, sea conditions are expected to be moderate to rough in Northern and Central Luzon due to the influence of the amihan. The rest of the country's coastal waters will be slight to moderate.
Pagasa reminded operators of small seacraft to take necessary precautions, especially during sudden localized thunderstorms that can generate rough coastal waters.
The public is encouraged to monitor the latest weather updates, rainfall advisories, and flood information directly from Pagasa’s official website, panahon.gov.ph.
