The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has issued a stark warning as the heat index in Cebu already soared to 37 degrees Celsius, with temperatures expected to climb even higher toward the end of April. According to forecasts, May 2026 is projected to be the hottest month of the year, intensifying concerns over public health and safety.
Rising Temperatures and Dry Conditions
During a news forum on Tuesday, April 7, Jhomer Eclarino, a Pagasa Visayas weather specialist, highlighted that the region is experiencing an increase in dry days this April. He emphasized that the current heat is not yet at its peak, with historical records indicating that late April and May typically bring the most intense temperatures in the Philippines.
Heat Index and Historical Comparisons
The heat index, which measures what the body actually feels by combining temperature and humidity, reached 37 degrees Celsius in Cebu on Sunday, April 5. Eclarino noted that hot and humid weather will persist in the coming days, with less than a 50 percent chance of rain until the weekend. Based on Pagasa records, Central Visayas faced even higher heat indices last year, peaking at 42 degrees Celsius in April and 43 degrees Celsius in May 2025.
Climate Shifts: From La Niña to El Niño
Eclarino also reported that La Niña officially ended on March 9, placing current conditions in a neutral phase. However, climate experts indicate a growing likelihood of El Niño developing in the coming months. There is a 62 percent probability of El Niño by June to July, which could increase to as high as 83 percent toward the end of the year, potentially exacerbating heat conditions further.
This combination of rising temperatures, reduced rainfall, and potential climate shifts underscores the need for preparedness and adaptation measures in Cebu and across the Philippines.
