Recent developments in the Senate have sparked discussions about a potential shift in power dynamics, but comparing it to the Thucydides Trap may be an overreach. The Duterte camp, while not a rising power threatening the Marcos administration, clearly aims to challenge the ruling regime and prevent its proxy from retaining the presidency in the next election.
Political Slugfest Ahead
Although the next presidential election is two years away, both sides have already engaged in a fierce battle. Using a boxing analogy, there will always be a winner and a loser in politics, as ties are temporary. The Senate has convened as an impeachment court for Vice President Sara Duterte, but it is dominated by her allies following a recent power shift. Cynics may conclude that she will keep her post, but the Duterte camp may have overplayed its hand.
Marcos Jr.'s Restraint
President Marcos Jr. appears conscious of his family's historical legacy and aims to clear the Marcos name. Despite having the power to silence opposition, he has shown restraint, which speaks to his self-control. However, the noise from the Duterte camp must be testing his patience.
This analysis is based on understanding human psychology, akin to Agatha Christie's detective Hercule Poirot, who uses his little gray cells to unravel mysteries. Philippine politics has become formulaic, with two-dimensional characters playing out a poorly written script that the voting masses consume. History holds little relevance when daily survival takes precedence, and politics serves as a spectacle that distracts from deeper issues.
Politics as the Opiate of the Masses
Politics has become the new opiate of the masses, providing entertainment that overshadows real problems. While the impeachment trial may seem predictable, the lack of imagination among local players means the expected twist may never come. The cynics might be right: Vice President Duterte will likely not be impeached, and the grand illusion is expecting a surprise that was never intended.
