The top seed NLEX is gone. Reigning Philippine Cup champion San Miguel Beer is out. Suddenly, the PBA Commissioner's Cup feels wide open.
On one side of the Final Four are Barangay Ginebra and Rain or Shine — two proud franchises, two long droughts, one race-to-four ticket to the finals. As the league's crowd darling, Ginebra is not just fighting for its cause but also for the throngs in the gallery. Rain or Shine, meanwhile, marches on, proudly carrying the badge and the fight for the league's independent teams.
And what awaits could be an all-out battle beginning with the best-of-seven semis opener on Wednesday, May 20, 2026, at the Ynares Center in Antipolo.
Ginebra's Quest for Redemption
For the Gin Kings, the wait has not exactly been long, but it sure feels that way. They last hoisted a trophy in the Season 47 Commissioner's Cup, only to have TNT break their hearts in three straight finals: the Season 47 Governors' Cup, Season 49 Governors' Cup, and Season 49 Commissioner's Cup. Coach Tim Cone and his troops know the window doesn't stay open forever.
Rain or Shine's Renaissance
The thirst is even more pronounced for Rain or Shine. The Elasto Painters haven't been to the Big Dance since their Season 41 Commissioner's Cup conquest of Alaska — a full decade ago. But if there's a time for Yeng Guiao's wards to finally break through, this might be it.
The E-Painters are enjoying a renaissance, highlighted by a franchise-best 7-0 start to the conference. They barged into their fifth semifinal stint in the last six conferences by taking down the San Miguel Beer squad that has long been the league's gold standard.
"I think that's a good sign, beating SMB, but it's still too early. We made the semifinals, yes, but this is just the start for us," said Guiao, ever the realist.
That win was cathartic. Rain or Shine had lost to the Beermen in the Season 42 Philippine Cup quarterfinals, Season 44 Commissioner's Cup semifinals, and both the Season 48 Commissioner's Cup quarters and Philippine Cup semis. The last time ROS got the better of SMB in the playoffs was in the Season 41 Commissioner's Cup semis, 3-1, en route to that title over Alaska, 4-2.
Omen? Guiao isn't biting. "Of course, it's a good sign. But I don't believe in things like that. You still have to earn it," he said. "There are still so many factors that can happen. And now we're facing another tough opponent in Ginebra."
Now Jaylen Johnson and the speedy Elasto Painters collide with Justin Brownlee and the battle-tested Gin Kings in the 7:30 p.m. nightcap. The double-header at the Ynares Center also features TNT and Meralco duking it out in the 5:15 p.m. curtain raiser — but all eyes will be on whether Ginebra can take one step closer to redemption, or if Rain or Shine's time to shine has finally come.
