Cebu is preparing for a massive influx of visitors this month, with tourism authorities projecting more than 300,000 tourist arrivals in January 2026. This figure matches the total from January 2025, with an anticipated increase of at least five percent. The surge is testing the province's accommodation, transport, and pricing systems even before the peak of the Sinulog festivities.
Drivers of the Tourist Surge and Capacity Concerns
Gelena Asis-Dimpas, officer in charge of the Department of Tourism in Central Visayas (DOT 7), revealed the projection during a press briefing on Wednesday, January 7. She explained that the estimate is based on historical arrival data, trend monitoring, airline seat capacity, and current hotel booking patterns.
Asis-Dimpas clarified that the influx is not solely due to the Sinulog Festival. A significant factor is the extended stay of balikbayans (returning overseas Filipinos) who arrived for Christmas and are remaining through January. Additionally, continuous arrivals from Australia, Hawaii, and neighboring Asian countries are contributing. The numbers are expected to receive a further boost from the Asean Tourism Forum 2026, scheduled from January 28 to 30, which will bring foreign delegates and international media to Cebu.
Hotels Near Full Capacity, Pricing Under Scrutiny
The strain on the accommodation sector is already evident. Asis-Dimpas reported that hotel occupancy rates across Cebu range from 80 percent to nearly 100 percent, a situation occurring a full week before the main Sinulog events. Areas like Cebu City, Mandaue City, and Lapu-Lapu City are particularly affected.
This near-full capacity operation benefits the local economy but stretches services and infrastructure. In response to concerns about potential price gouging, the DOT 7 is closely monitoring hotel rates, especially among its accredited establishments.
"We are closely monitoring prices," Asis-Dimpas stated. "If there are complaints or indications of unreasonable increases, we will coordinate with the city government and the Department of Trade and Industry for appropriate action." She added that coordination mechanisms are in place to ensure pricing compliance during major events like Sinulog.
Rebound from Calamities and Enhanced Preparations
The official noted that tourist arrivals dipped in the last quarter of 2025 following a series of earthquakes, which triggered widespread cancellations as reported by the Hotel Resort and Restaurant Association of Cebu Inc. (HRRAC). However, year-end booking data showed a strong rebound, leading to the current packed hotels, full flights, and fully booked tour packages.
To manage part of the influx, the Balik Cebu program is active, involving four to five flights catering to overseas Filipinos, with around 60 scheduled arrivals coordinated with HRRAC and Cebu Pacific. Welcome activities are set at Ayala Center Cebu.
Despite the pressure, tour operations across the province remain active, with many already fully booked. Authorities are tightening security and crowd management, especially at religious sites. Fr. Jules Van V. Almerez, OSA, of the Basilica Minore del Santo Niño, announced that strict dress codes will be enforced inside the church.
Security protocols are also being reinforced. Port Police Inspector Jomar Lumapay, ground commander of the Cebu Port Authority, said a no-backpack policy will be strictly implemented inside the basilica during Sinulog activities.
Cebu City alone is projecting an influx of about four to five million visitors for the entire Sinulog festivities, with the largest crowds expected during the Fiesta Señor and the Grand Parade on January 18, 2026. Tourism officials acknowledge that this projected surge will test Cebu's ability to balance economic gains with fair pricing and logistical readiness as festival-driven tourism continues to expand.
