Cebu City Vice Mayor Tomas Osmeña on Friday, July 3, 2026, compared the danger posed by flooding from Monterrazas de Cebu, a 19-story condominium developed by Mont Property Group, to the deadly game of Russian roulette. In that game, a participant spins the cylinder of a revolver loaded with a single bullet, points it at their head, and pulls the trigger. Osmeña used the simile as a metaphor for what he described as reckless, life-threatening behavior by allowing the development to operate without adequate flood controls.
Flaws in the Russian Roulette Comparison
Osmeña's analogy drew mixed reactions. While councilors acknowledged the flood threat from Monterrazas, some argued that allowing the project to continue does not equate to the immediate lethality of Russian roulette. Critics called the comparison an exaggeration, meant to amplify the danger and pressure the city government into action. They noted that no city agency would intentionally place itself in such a lethal situation.
Calculating the Risk
Osmeña stated that the chance of a deadly flood from Monterrazas is one in six, or about 18% to 18.5%, based on a standard revolver with six chambers. Another source cited a slightly lower probability of 16.6%. Gun experts like Ed Rama explained that the exact odds vary depending on how the game is played—whether the cylinder is spun before each trigger pull or only once at the start. The risk also changes from player to player: 16.6% for the first player, 25% for the third, 50% for the fifth, and 100% for the sixth. Osmeña emphasized that the metaphor is intended to convey the imminence of danger, regardless of the precise percentage.
No Partial Death
Osmeña clarified that a flood victim cannot be “18% dead.” He argued that drowning results in either survival or death, with no middle ground—a point that no councilor disputed. This underscores the binary nature of the risk: residents either live or die in a flood event.
Monterrazas Partially Cleared Earlier
Monterrazas was implicated in the November 5, 2025 flood that killed at least 33 people in Cebu City. However, government regulators in April 2026 lifted a cease-and-desist order against the developer, ruling that Monterrazas was not solely to blame. The timeline includes: after the flood, regulators cited massive violations, including the cutting of 700 trees and breaches of its Environmental Compliance Certificate (ECC). The City Council in February 2026 flagged additional violations, such as missing permits for tree-cutting, hauling, and soil excavation. In April 2026, the Environmental Management Board (EMB) and the City Council cleared Monterrazas, citing extreme rainfall and drainage limitations as contributing factors, and officially lifted the cease-and-desist orders.
City Council Seeks to Reinstate Cease-and-Desist Order
On Osmeña's motion, the City Council voted Friday to ask Mayor Nestor Archival to issue a new cease-and-desist order against Monterrazas, effectively reinstating the previously lifted order. Mayor Archival, who has publicly defended Monterrazas by affirming its compliance with anti-flood measures, may reject the request. If he sides with the developer, Osmeña and other councilors are likely to criticize him. When Archival was minority floor leader of the City Council, he often lamented the mayor's inaction on hundreds of council resolutions. As mayor, he could grant the council's request, refuse, or refer the dispute to higher authorities such as the Department of the Interior and Local Government (DILG), the Office of the President, or the courts.
Political Implications
Osmeña warned that if another disaster strikes, the mayor would face blame for any loss of life or property damage. The City Council, under Osmeña's leadership, is positioning itself as proactive, seeking to avoid responsibility for future floods. The 18% (or 16%) Russian roulette chance represents the probability that the council's warnings are validated by a catastrophic event.
