Global tourism continued to expand in the first quarter of 2026, but growth slowed as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, rising travel costs and broader economic uncertainties weighed on international travel demand.
Data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) showed that international tourist arrivals rose two percent to 307 million in the first three months of the year, equivalent to about six million more travelers compared with the same period in 2025.
The growth came despite disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict that escalated in March, affecting flight operations, increasing fuel costs and dampening traveler confidence.
Strong at the Start
UN Tourism said travel demand remained relatively strong at the start of the year, with international arrivals growing 2.5 percent in January and February. However, growth slowed sharply to just 0.4 percent in March as the conflict disrupted travel flows across multiple regions.
The agency warned that the crisis could shave one to two percentage points off its initial forecast of three to four percent growth in international tourist arrivals for 2026, depending on the duration and extent of the conflict.
“The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting travel patterns well beyond the region itself, including rising inflation, particularly in transport and accommodation,” said UN Tourism Secretary-General Shaikha Al Nuwais, in a statement. She said higher airfares, reduced flight capacity and uncertainty surrounding air connectivity were placing pressure on travelers, tourism businesses and destinations.
UN Tourism noted that disruptions to flights in and around the Middle East, combined with higher oil prices and jet fuel shortages in some markets, have pushed travel costs higher worldwide. As a result, some travelers are opting for destinations closer to home, while others are delaying trips altogether.
Resilience
Despite these challenges, Al Nuwais said tourism continued to demonstrate resilience and remained a key driver of economic activity, employment and community development.
Europe, the world’s largest tourism destination, posted one of the strongest performances during the quarter, recording a four percent increase in arrivals to more than 130 million visitors. Some European destinations benefited from the redirection of travel flows away from affected regions.
Africa also registered four percent growth, supported by strong performances in both North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Asia and the Pacific saw arrivals rise three percent, although growth moderated in March as disruptions at major Middle Eastern aviation hubs contributed to a 27 percent decline in South Asia. Oceania and Northeast Asia posted stronger gains of nine percent and five percent, respectively.
The Americas recorded two percent growth, led by an 18 percent increase in Central America, while South America slipped by one percent.
The Middle East was the hardest-hit region, with international arrivals falling 14 percent during the quarter. Several Gulf destinations recorded significant declines, although Egypt bucked the trend with a 16 percent increase in arrivals.
Top Threats This Year
A survey conducted by UN Tourism among industry experts identified the Middle East conflict, rising transport and accommodation costs and broader economic challenges as the top threats facing global tourism this year.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents said the conflict was negatively affecting travel demand in their destinations, while 61 percent reported a decline in inbound tourism linked to the crisis.
Industry data also reflected the disruption. The International Air Transport Association (Iata) reported that international passenger traffic increased four percent in the first quarter but declined one percent in March. Middle Eastern airlines saw passenger traffic plunge 61 percent during the month.
Global hotel occupancy remained stable at 64 percent in March, although occupancy rates in the Middle East fell sharply to 48 percent from 75 percent in January, highlighting the conflict’s impact on the region’s tourism sector.
