MANILA – Filipino consumers are bracing for another round of fuel price hikes, with projections indicating potential increases of up to PHP1.50 per liter next week. This anticipated rise is primarily driven by overseas supply disruptions linked to escalating geopolitical tensions and adverse weather events affecting global oil markets.
Projected Price Adjustments for Diesel and Gasoline
According to Jetti Petroleum President Leo Bellas, who spoke on Friday, diesel prices could see a significant increase ranging from PHP1.30 to PHP1.50 per liter. Meanwhile, gasoline prices may experience a more moderate rise of PHP0.50 to PHP0.70 per liter. Bellas attributed these projections to foreign exchange movements and fluctuations in Asian oil benchmarks, which are responding to global market pressures.
Geopolitical Factors Driving Supply Uncertainty
Bellas highlighted several key factors contributing to the heightened supply uncertainty. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, coupled with new sanctions targeting Iran's shadow fleet, have created volatility in Middle Eastern oil supplies. Additionally, an increased U.S. military presence in the region has further exacerbated concerns over potential disruptions to crude oil flows.
He explained, "Diesel and middle distillate prices are up due to rising supply concerns as the EU import ban on refined products from Russian-origin crude could disrupt flows and tighten the physical market. For gasoline, limiting the upside to prices is the healthy regional supply and stock inventory."
Additional Supply Tightening from Weather and Outages
Beyond geopolitical issues, other events are tightening near-term oil and gas supply. An outage at Kazakhstan's largest oilfield has reduced production, while a major winter storm in the United States has disrupted energy infrastructure and logistics. These factors collectively support higher crude prices, putting upward pressure on refined products like diesel and gasoline.
Context of Recent Fuel Price Trends
If implemented, next week's hike would mark the fourth consecutive week of increases for gasoline prices and the sixth straight week for diesel. This trend underscores the persistent challenges in global oil markets affecting local consumers.
For context, this week already saw price adjustments with gasoline rising by PHP0.40 per liter, diesel by PHP1.40 per liter, and kerosene by PHP0.80 per liter. These incremental increases reflect the ongoing impact of supply chain disruptions and market dynamics on the Philippine energy sector.
As the situation evolves, industry experts advise monitoring international developments closely, as further geopolitical escalations or supply shocks could lead to additional price volatility in the coming weeks.
