Arkipelago Analytics Survey Reveals Three-Way Tie for Top Spot in Voter Preferences
A recent voting preference survey conducted by Arkipelago Analytics has unveiled a highly competitive political landscape, with three candidates locked in a dead heat for the lead. The data, released on April 7, 2026, shows Sebastian "Baste" Duterte of HNP, Raffy Tulfo running as an independent, and Vico Sotto also independent, each securing an identical 47% voter preference. This three-way tie underscores the intense competition ahead of the upcoming elections.
Detailed Breakdown of Candidate Rankings
Following the top tier, the survey highlights several other notable candidates with strong support. In the next group, Robin Padilla of PDP, Loren Legarda from NPC, and Leni Robredo of LP each garnered 42% voter preference. Close behind are Alan Peter Cayetano of NP, Paolo "Pulong" Duterte from HNP, and Francis Escudero of NPC, all registering 39%.
The subsequent cluster includes Mark Villar of NP, JV Ejercito, Rowena Guanzon independent, Juan Edgardo Angara, Nancy Binay, and Grace Poe of NPC, each with 34%. Further down, Manny Pacquiao of PFP, Jinggoy Estrada, and Jose Marie Borja "Vice Ganda" Viceral independent follow at 28% each.
Ben "Bitag" Tulfo independent and Jose Sixto Gonzales Dantes III independent each posted 25%. The list continues with Bong Revilla, Mar Roxas, Francis Tolentino of PFP, Gringo Honasan from RP, and Franklin Drilon of LP at 22% each.
Heidi Mendoza, Willie Revillame, Ralph Recto, and Vince Dizon are next with 19% each. Rex Gatchalian and Gibo Teodoro recorded 16%, along with Martin Romualdez of LAKAS, Phillip Salvador from PDPLBN, and Benhur Abalos of PFP.
At lower percentages, Jimmy Bondoc of PDPLBN stands at 10%, while Chel Diokno and Bonifacio Bosita independent also have 10% each. Antonio Trillanes of LP, Vic Rodriguez, and Teddy Casiño of MKBYN each received 7%.
The bottom of the rankings includes Teacher France Castro of MKBYN, Claire Castro, Ka Leody De Guzman, Doc Marites Mata independent, Liza Maza, and Apollo Quiboloy, all at 5%.
Survey Methodology and Demographics
The survey was implemented from February 26 to March 6, 2026, utilizing face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 2,637 adults aged 18 and above. The sampling design employed regional stratification across all 18 regions in the Philippines, with further classification by urban and rural clusters to ensure comprehensive coverage.
National estimates carry a ±2% margin of error at a 96% confidence level, while subnational estimates for each geographic area have a ±5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level. Weighting adjustments were applied to align the regional distribution of respondents with COMELEC's latest voter registration data, which totals 68,618,667 registered voters.
The final weighted regional proportions are 11% for the National Capital Region, 45% for Luzon excluding NCR, 20% for Visayas, and 24% for Mindanao. Gender distribution was also aligned with COMELEC data, showing 51% female and 49% male respondents.
Socioeconomic classification followed established consumer segmentation standards in the Philippines, with respondents distributed as 7% from Class ABC, 75% from Class D, and 18% from Class E. This detailed methodology ensures the survey's accuracy and relevance in reflecting voter sentiments across diverse demographics.
