The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration-Davao Complex Station (Pagasa) has announced that Mindanao may continue to experience rising temperatures in May, even if tropical cyclones enter the country.
Weather Specialist's Insights
Alan Ray C. Ribo, weather specialist of Pagasa-Davao Complex Station, explained that tropical cyclones are more likely to affect Luzon and the Visayas, while Mindanao may only experience slight to heavy rains caused by localized thunderstorms. Ribo noted that the region could still face extreme heat even during the onset of the southwest monsoon, or habagat.
"Once the southwest monsoon begins, we will still experience rain. The effects of El Niño are not immediate during the onset of the monsoon. Parts of western Davao Region have already experienced rain, while the 75 percent probability of El Niño may largely affect Luzon and the Visayas," he said during the Kapehan sa Dabaw on Monday, May 11, 2026, at SM City Davao.
Rainfall and Heat Index
Ribo said the low chance of tropical cyclone development could result in below-normal to near-normal rainfall conditions in northern parts of the Philippines. He added that the country is currently experiencing below-normal rainfall, while the probability of above-normal rainfall conditions in the coming months remains low. Ribo also mentioned that Pagasa continues to monitor the heat index in Davao City, which has reached as high as 40 degrees Celsius.
Based on weather statistics, Pagasa expects the effects of the El Niño phenomenon to continue until the first quarter of 2027.
El Niño Alert
Pagasa earlier raised an El Niño alert on April 21, 2026, citing a 79 percent probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026. The state weather bureau warned that the phenomenon could bring drier-than-usual conditions, including dry spells and droughts, in several parts of the country.
