The Enduring Influence of Political Dynasties in Philippine Elections
The recent trend of political dynasties shaping Philippine presidential races can be traced back to the late Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino III. When he campaigned for the presidency in 2010, his team believed victory was assured not just due to the powerful Aquino family name, but also because of the emotional wave following his mother, former President Cory Aquino's death the previous year. Aquino indeed secured the presidency, succeeding Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, whose own political lineage from her father, former President Diosdado Macapagal, provided a less pronounced advantage.
The Rise of the Uniteam and Its Cracks
Following Noynoy, the son of former dictator Ferdinand Marcos, Bongbong Marcos, ascended to the presidency with significant assistance from Sara Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who became his vice president. The 2022 victory of the Marcos-Duterte tandem, aptly named the Uniteam, was fueled by the fanatical support of Marcos loyalists and the Diehard Duterte Supporters (DDS). However, this alliance has since fractured, with Sara now publicly criticizing BBM as she prepares for her own presidential bid in 2028.
Sara Duterte's 2028 Prospects: Challenges and Uncertainties
Many speculate that Sara could become the next president, leveraging her family name and DDS backing. Yet, her path is fraught with obstacles. The vice presidency did not guarantee success for Leni Robredo, who lost her 2022 presidential run. Moreover, Sara's campaign faces headwinds from Rodrigo Duterte's diminished popularity and corruption allegations against her, both as vice president and during her brief tenure as education secretary. The label "Sara Lustay" has persisted, and with the elder Duterte in ICC custody, mobilizing DDS support may prove difficult.
Additionally, BBM is likely to rally loyalists behind his own chosen candidate, further complicating Sara's chances. Financial constraints also loom large, echoing why she avoided the 2022 presidential race due to lacking BBM's resources.
The Resurgence of Leni Robredo and Shifting Public Sentiment
This uncertainty has reignited calls for Leni Robredo to run again. A unified coalition of her supporters, alongside other progressive groups, could potentially secure the presidency. Public opinion has shifted towards incorruptible figures like Robredo, especially after widespread exposure of flood control anomalies post-Aquino's term, swinging the pendulum left of center.
The West Philippine Sea: A New Electoral Game-Changer
Emerging issues are also reshaping the political landscape. Growing anti-China sentiment among voters regarding the West Philippine Sea is becoming a critical factor. While China-backed candidates previously deceived voters, heightened awareness now means that a candidate's stance on this issue can make or break their candidacy, adding a new dimension to the 2028 race.
